What Is the Forecast for Crude Oil Prices?

As of July 16, 2025, crude oil prices are at a critical juncture, influenced by a complex mix of supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and macroeconomic policies. With Brent and WTI crude oil prices hovering at four-year lows, investors are keenly focused on forecasts for 2025 and 2026. This blog dives into the latest projections from leading sources like the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and others, offering a detailed outlook on crude oil prices and a critical perspective on the factors shaping the market.

Crude Oil Price Forecast for 2025

Brent Crude Oil

EIA Projection: The EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $74 per barrel (b) in 2025, down from $80/b in 2024. This decline is driven by robust global production growth outpacing demand, leading to significant inventory builds. By Q4 2025, prices are expected to dip to $72/b as global oil inventories rise.
J.P. Morgan Outlook: J.P. Morgan predicts a lower average of $66/b for Brent in 2025, citing supply-demand imbalances and the Trump administration’s push to reduce oil prices to curb inflation. They highlight OPEC+’s plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June 2025, adding downward pressure.
Goldman Sachs Estimate: Goldman Sachs anticipates Brent trading between $70-$85/b, averaging $76/b in 2025. While geopolitical risks, such as U.S. sanctions on Iran, could cause temporary spikes, high OPEC+ spare capacity and elastic U.S. shale supply are expected to limit significant gains.
LongForecast Prediction: Brent prices are projected to rise from $67.63/b in July 2025 to $75.75/b by December, with a high of $79.54/b in October and a low of $59.76/b in autumn. Monthly volatility is expected, with a peak in October followed by a 6.2% drop in November.
Other Analysts: ING forecasts Brent at $71/b, with prices weakening in later quarters as OPEC+ unwinds production cuts. A Reuters poll suggests an average of $74.53/b, balancing weaker demand with potential geopolitical support.

WTI Crude Oil

LongForecast Prediction: WTI prices are expected to climb from $64.90/b in July 2025 to $75.03/b by December, with a high of $78.35/b in October and a low of $56.01/b in autumn. Prices are forecast to rise 5.9% in July but drop 6.2% in November.
LiteFinance Outlook: WTI may spike to $73.52/b in June but could fall to $51.65/b by year-end, reflecting weak demand and stable production.
Current Prices (July 15, 2025): WTI is trading at $66.90/b, down 0.13% daily and 17.17% year-over-year, signaling a bearish near-term trend.

Key Drivers for 2025

Supply Surge: Non-OPEC+ countries, including the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Guyana, are expected to boost global oil supply by 1.6-1.9 million bpd. The EIA projects U.S. production to remain steady at 13.4 million bpd, with a slight decline by late 2025 due to reduced drilling at lower prices.
OPEC+ Production Plans: OPEC+ intends to phase out 2.2 million bpd of voluntary production cuts starting in April 2025, with an additional 411,000 bpd increase in June. However, overproduction by members like Kazakhstan and the UAE, combined with 97% compliance, may limit actual supply growth.
Demand Weakness: Global oil demand is projected to grow by 720,000-1.4 million bpd, below pre-pandemic levels. Weak demand in China and the U.S., alongside energy transition trends like electric vehicle (EV) adoption, is capping growth. China’s stimulus may provide some uplift, but U.S. tariffs could counteract this.
Geopolitical Tensions: U.S. sanctions on Russia (effective January 10, 2025) and potential tighter measures on Iran could disrupt supply, potentially pushing Brent to the mid-$80s/b mid-year. However, China’s role in Iran’s oil exports may mitigate these effects.
Trade Policy Impacts: U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, effective February 1, 2025, are expected to persist despite a 90-day suspension for most countries. These policies could slow economic growth and oil demand.
Market Sentiment: Bearish sentiment prevails due to expected inventory builds of 0.4-1.4 million bpd. However, China’s stimulus and India’s rising demand could provide upside potential.

Crude Oil Price Forecast for 2026

Brent Crude Oil

EIA Projection: Brent prices are expected to fall to $66/b in 2026, driven by continued inventory builds averaging 0.6 million bpd. Global production growth of 0.8-1.1 million bpd, led by non-OPEC+ countries, will outpace demand growth of 690,000-1.0 million bpd.
J.P. Morgan Outlook: J.P. Morgan forecasts Brent at $58/b, citing oversupply and weak demand. The Trump administration’s goal of $50/b oil could intensify downward pressure unless U.S. shale production declines significantly.
LongForecast Prediction: Brent is expected to open at $75.75/b in January 2026, falling to $72.35/b by month-end and averaging $74.05/b by February, with a range of $68.73-$80.86/b early in the year.
Goldman Sachs Estimate: Brent is likely to stabilize within $70-$85/b, with high OPEC+ spare capacity and slowing U.S. production limiting volatility.
LiteFinance Outlook: Brent could drop to $48.03/b by year-end, assuming stable production and fading demand.

WTI Crude Oil

LongForecast Prediction: WTI prices are projected to decline from $75.03/b in January 2026 to $71.11/b by month-end, with a bearish trend persisting through the year.
LiteFinance Outlook: WTI may fall to $48.55/b by mid-2026, with a slight recovery to $49.33/b by December, reflecting market stabilization and stagnant demand.

Key Drivers for 2026

Supply Growth: Global liquid fuels production is expected to rise by 0.8-1.6 million bpd, driven by non-OPEC+ countries. OPEC+ may add 0.5 million bpd, but overproduction could amplify supply.
Demand Slowdown: Global oil demand growth is forecast to slow to 690,000-740,000 bpd, driven by non-OECD Asia but constrained by EV adoption and decarbonization efforts.
Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing sanctions on Russia and potential Middle East escalations could cause price spikes, but high spare capacity is expected to limit impacts.
Energy Transition: EV sales, projected at 17 million in 2026, and decarbonization in air travel and petrochemicals are expected to reduce oil demand by 0.6 million bpd.
U.S. Production Trends: The EIA anticipates flat U.S. production in 2026 due to reduced drilling at lower prices, with active rig counts potentially dropping to 320 at $60/b WTI, leading to annualized losses of 1.2 million bpd.

Long-Term Outlook (2027-2030)

LiteFinance: WTI prices are expected to remain bearish, ranging from $48.55-$49.33/b in 2027 and potentially dipping into the $40s/b by 2028 due to energy transitions and stable production.
EIA: Global fossil fuel demand is projected to peak by 2030, with Brent prices potentially falling below $66/b by 2026 and continuing to decline as clean energy adoption accelerates.
Emerging Markets: Growth in India and non-OECD countries may provide some support, but the shift to renewables is expected to dominate, capping long-term price gains.

Critical Perspective

While the consensus leans bearish due to oversupply and weak demand, several assumptions require scrutiny:

Tariff Impacts: Forecasts emphasize U.S. tariffs as a demand suppressant, but the 90-day tariff suspension and exemptions for oil and gas imports suggest limited direct impact on oil markets. China’s increased crude import quotas (258 million tons in 2025) could offset some demand weakness.
Geopolitical Risks: High OPEC+ spare capacity is cited as a price cap, but sudden disruptions, such as a 1 million bpd drop in Iranian exports, could push Brent to the mid-$80s/b, as Goldman Sachs notes. The market may be underestimating these risks.
U.S. Production: Assumptions of a shale slowdown may be premature, as the Trump administration’s pro-oil policies could sustain output, especially if prices stabilize above $60/b.
Historical Parallels: Current forecasts resemble the 2014-2016 oversupply period, but rapid demand recovery or supply shocks could mirror the 2021-2022 price spikes. Investors should be wary of overly pessimistic projections.

Conclusion

Crude oil prices in 2025 are poised for downward pressure, with Brent averaging $66-$74/b and WTI ranging from $51.65-$75.03/b, driven by robust non-OPEC+ supply and modest demand growth. In 2026, prices are expected to decline further, with Brent at $58-$66/b and WTI at $48-$71/b, as inventories build and energy transitions accelerate. Geopolitical risks and China’s stimulus could introduce volatility, potentially pushing prices toward $85/b in 2025. Investors should monitor OPEC+ production decisions, U.S. shale trends, and trade policies closely.